Ellwood's Butterfly Grove Spent Two Empty Winters Getting Ready for a Crowd

"It could go either way," biologist Charis van der Heide told the Santa Barbara Independent in January, when the late-season count across every Ellwood Mesa overwintering site came back with two monarchs. "They could bounce back remarkably again, or this could be our new normal, which would be devastating."

Neither outcome has played out yet. The 2026-27 overwintering season is starting now. The City of Goleta says its biweekly count chart will be posted in early October 2026, and the Xerces Society's early-season survey window runs October 17 through November 1. When you walk the grove this month, you'll be on ground that changed a lot while the butterflies stayed away. Trails, drainage, a footbridge, and hundreds of new trees went in during the two leanest winters the site has had since 2020.

Two winters in numbers

Last season the City's consultant counts at Ellwood peaked on October 31, 2025, with 20 monarchs across all Ellwood sites, three of them at Ellwood Main. By November 18 the figure had dropped to nine. It rose to 18 on December 1. The January count, delayed from January 2 by heavy rain, found two. The season before that topped out at 34 in mid-November 2024.

Those numbers only mean something next to Ellwood's own history:

The 2020-21 row matters most. Ten butterflies was a lower peak than either recent winter, and the next season brought tens of thousands back to the grove. Van der Heide told the Independent that the statewide population bounced back to almost a quarter million in 2021. The City's own Monarch Press newsletter put it this way in its year-end report: "This gives us hope."

The causes she listed reach well beyond Goleta. They include a breeding season hurt by long stretches of heat, which caterpillars are sensitive to, plus milkweed loss, pesticide use, logging, and development. Winter storms make things worse, because cold, wet wind makes it hard for monarchs to hold onto branches. What happens at Ellwood this winter depends largely on a summer that already happened somewhere else.

What got built while the grove sat quiet

The local work runs on the Ellwood Monarch Butterfly Habitat Management Phase 1 Implementation Plan. Goleta City Council approved it on October 17, 2023, and the California Coastal Commission issued the permit on May 10, 2024. The plan covers habitat planting, hazardous-vegetation management, culvert and drainage repair, pedestrian-bridge replacement, emergency-road renovation, trail repair and rerouting, and signage. The City still lists it as in progress.

The plan's timing explains why so much happened during the low years. Winter storms in 2023 knocked down or destabilized dozens of drought-weakened eucalyptus and damaged the access road along Devereux Creek. More storms in 2024 closed Ellwood Mesa to the public for a time. The repair work started as the population was dropping, so the two timelines ran side by side.

Here is what 2025 added on the ground:

• Trail and drainage improvements inside the butterfly grove, plus a temporary footbridge
• About 60 acres of fire-related vegetation work between May and October, including removing dead logs and ladder fuels and felling standing dead or high-risk trees
• More than 1,000 volunteer sign-ins over 29 work days, which planted more than 550 trees and 2,500 plants and laid irrigation

The City's history page has a one-line entry for 2026 so far, saying restoration and vegetation management continue. The Monarch Press reported that fire-related vegetation work would resume this year. Some planned features are not confirmed as finished. The plan includes improvements to the two existing monarch viewing areas and new interpretive kiosks and signage, but none of the material we reviewed says they've been installed.

Why a small season means a different kind of walk

Low numbers also change where the butterflies are. In a February update, van der Heide explained that in low-population years monarchs spread out across big habitats like Ellwood Mesa. They find roosts partly by watching other roosting monarchs, and when there are only a few of them, that follow-the-leader behavior breaks down. Surveys that follow the Xerces methodology at known roost sites could miss a few butterflies, though "not likely more than a handful." She also noted that mortality runs higher in low years, because the butterflies lose the protection of large clusters.

So if the count stays low this fall, you're more likely to see a single monarch moving through the trees than the hanging clusters people remember from 2021 to 2024. If the count jumps, the newly repaired grove trails will carry more foot traffic than they have in two years.

You can also follow individual butterflies. Under a project led at Ellwood by van der Heide of Althouse & Meade, with the City of Goleta, a U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service grant, and Ellwood Friends, local monarchs were fitted with 60-milligram solar-powered tags that show up in Cellular Tracking Technologies' free Project Monarch Science app. The Independent reported five tagged by early December and 10 in the area by mid-January. Across North America, the wider Project Monarch had confirmed at least 28 fall-tagged monarchs at Mexican overwintering latitudes by March 18, 2026. One of them, XSTI009, became the first individual documented through a complete southbound migration and its spring return north. We found no announcement yet of a new Ellwood tagging group for fall 2026.

Planning a visit this fall

1. Start at the free lot at 7729 Hollister Avenue. The City describes the walk to the Goleta Butterfly Grove as a little over half a mile. Admission is free.
2. Check the hours before you go early. The City's page lists sunrise to sunset in one section and 8 a.m. to sunset in its FAQ. Plan around the later start if you want to be safe.
3. Follow posted closures. The City warns of hazardous trees and eroding trails on Ellwood Mesa, and says individual trail closures and detours can change with conditions and work schedules.
4. Come in from the Land Trust side if you like. The Land Trust for Santa Barbara County's Coronado Butterfly Preserve is open daily from dawn to dusk, and its trails connect to the Goleta Monarch Grove.
5. Check the count before you invite guests. The City posts biweekly counts on its Goleta Butterfly Grove page, and the season's first chart is due in early October. The Xerces mid-season window runs November 14 through December 6, 2026, and the late-season window runs December 26 through January 10, 2027.

The City says it is revitalizing its Monarch Butterfly Docent Program, with Leonel Mendoza-Diaz as coordinator, but its grove page does not list a docent schedule. Future volunteer workdays are listed at cityofgoleta.org/Ellwood-now. In its February update, the Monarch Press also suggested planting winter-flowering nectar plants and, in spring, native milkweed.

Where the federal listing stands

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service proposed listing the monarch as threatened on December 12, 2024. As of its page updated September 21, 2026, no final rule has been issued, and monarchs are not federally protected under the proposal until a final rule takes effect. The rulemaking is classed as a "Long-Term Action" in the federal regulatory agenda. Monarch Joint Venture explained that this classification meant no action was expected within the following 12 months. For this winter, that leaves the grove's day-to-day care with the City, its biologists, and the volunteers who planted those 550 trees. The first count of the season shows up on the City's page this month.

If you have questions about the Ellwood side of Goleta, from the grove trails to the streets that border the mesa, Kendrick Guehr will reply personally and promptly. Work With Kendrick.